By Elliot Hartley
Dr Timothy Oliver, Lecturer in British politics and public policy at The University of Manchester, said Labour are in ‘extremely deep trouble’ if Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon wins the Makerfield by-election.
“It’s quite an unusual by-election,” he told the M.E.N. “[It’s] not often that you get a candidate who voters might reasonably assume is running to replace the sitting Prime Minister and leader of his own party, and therefore can run against the Prime Minister.
“If Reform do win, or the Greens, but that seems less likely at this moment, then Labour are clearly in extremely deep trouble, given the candidates in play. If Burnham can’t beat Reform in Greater Manchester – can anyone beat them?
“The margin also matters. When the votes are counted, pay attention to shares of vote, changes, and how close the lead is. They will also be really important for the future. If Burnham wins a big share of the vote and a big majority, that’s also important as well.”
Discussing Labour’s performance and the public perception of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he continued: “The government is objectively in very deep political trouble. Finishing third in Wales – a country they have won every election in since 1922. Fifth worst set of local election results in England for any government since 1945. Fallen back further in Scotland.
“Keir Starmer is personally very unpopular, and when you read about how his government functions, it seems he’s a real factor in why things have gone wrong; a failure to make decisions, to make a case for things he wants.
“You can therefore see a very clear argument for a new leader. Whether any of the likely candidates are going to be able to dig them out of the electoral hole they are in – that’s a very big question.”
