As the excitement builds for the 2024 Grand National at Aintree on April 13, punters are busy analysing form, studying trends, and scrutinising contenders.
With such a prestigious and unpredictable race, making the right selections if you’re looking for a Grand National 2024 bet can be challenging.
If you’re struggling to break down the field ahead of the latest renewal, here are five things to avoid when picking your Grand National horses.
Horses outside the age range of 7-9
While history shows occasional outliers, the last eight editions of the Grand National have been dominated by horses aged between seven and nine.
With eight-year-olds being the most successful in recent years, winning half of the last eight renewals, it’s prudent to focus on this age group.
Horses at the fore of the betting
Despite the allure of backing the favourite, recent history and the unpredictable nature of the Grand National suggest caution. Only two favourites have triumphed in the last eleven renewals, highlighting the erratic nature of this iconic race.
Additionally, only three of the last eleven winners were in the top three of the betting, emphasising the value of seeking out longer odds.
Horses weighing more than 11 stone
Given that the Grand National is a handicap contest, weight becomes a critical factor in deciphering the field.
Few horses have managed to carry more than 11 stone to victory since 2012, underscoring the challenge of overcoming a hefty burden. Conversely, none of the last eleven winners have carried less than 10-3 — indicating the delicate balance of weight allocation.
Horses with less than three seasonal runs
Consistency and preparation are key in the build-up to the Grand National.
All of the last eleven winners had at least three runs in the season leading up to the race, while nine of those had at least one win — suggesting that race fitness and form are significant predictors of success.
Beware of horses who may lack sufficient conditioning or race experience, but also avoid horses who have potentially been overworked — as nine of the last 11 winners had no more than six runs in the season.
Horses unproven over three miles and beyond
With the gruelling Grand National course stretching beyond a testing four-and-a-quarter miles, stamina is paramount.
Past champions have typically demonstrated proficiency over extended distances, with the majority boasting at least seven runs over three miles or more.
Look for horses with a proven track record of staying power to increase your chances of backing a winner in the Aintree horse betting.
By steering clear of these five pitfalls and focusing on horses that align with these key trends, you’ll be better equipped to make informed selections for the 2024 Grand National.
If we had to pick one horse using these five bits of advice, it would likely be Meeting of the Waters for Willie Mullins and JP McManus.
The horse is seven years of age, just outside the top three of the betting as the 12/1 fourth favourite, carried 10-7, and has raced exactly six times this season with two wins.
However, a potential pitfall would be that he has only raced over three miles on five occasions. That should still be enough to give him a chance.
