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UEFA Champions League permutations: Who needs what to qualify for the last 16?

We had controversial penalties, six-goal thrillers and stunning comebacks as the UEFA Champions League returned for matchday five, with a thrilling set of fixtures teeing up what is sure to be an absorbing group-stage finale in December.

Twelve of the last-16 spots have already been decided ahead of the final set of group games – scheduled for December 12 and December 13 – but there is still plenty to play for overall.

The hopes of English duo Manchester United and Newcastle United are hanging by a thread, and there is something on the line in all but one of the groups.

Here, we run through all the permutations as the continent’s elite prepare to jockey for position on matchday six.

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Group A (Qualified: Bayern Munich)

Bayern Munich have qualified as group winners, taking 13 points from their first five games, but it’s all to play for behind them.

Manchester United enter matchday six bottom of the group after their 3-3 draw with Galatasaray. They must win at home to Bayern and hope Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw in order to finish second, though a victory will at least guarantee them a third-place finish and UEFA Europa League football.

Copenhagen lead Galatasaray on goal difference, so a home draw will send them through, with the Turkish giants needing to win to advance.

Group B (Qualified: Arsenal, PSV)

Arsenal qualified as group winners by routing Lens 6-0 last time out, and that result also guaranteed PSV second place, so there is nothing to play for when the top two meet on December 12.

Lens host Sevilla in the group’s other game, knowing a draw will see them drop into the Europa League. The Spanish outfit must win to reach a competition they have won a record seven times.

GROUP C (Qualified: Real Madrid)

Top spot is also decided here, with Real Madrid boasting a perfect record after five games.

Napoli are close to confirming second place; they must avoid losing by two or more goals against Braga on December 12 to qualify for the last 16. The Portuguese side can only advance with a handsome victory in Italy.

Bottom team Union Berlin, meanwhile, need to win at home to Madrid and hope Napoli beat Braga in order to take the consolation prize of a Europa League place.

Group D (Qualified: Real Sociedad, Inter)

Real Sociedad and Inter have both qualified for the round of 16, and top spot will be decided when they face off on December 12. The Nerazzurri must win to overtake La Real, who boast a better goal difference.

Salzburg and Benfica – who squandered a 3-0 lead to draw with Inter last time out – will face off for a Europa League place, with the Lisbon giants needing to win by two or more goals to finish third.

Group E (Qualified: Atletico Madrid, Lazio)

Atletico Madrid and Lazio have both qualified for the knockouts, with Diego Simeone’s side holding a one-point lead over the Biancocelesti and only needing a draw to top the group when they face each other on December 13.

Feyenoord are guaranteed to drop into the Europa League, while winless Celtic will finish bottom regardless of their matchday six result.

Group F (Qualified: Borussia Dortmund)

This is where things get interesting. Borussia Dortmund have qualified and will top the group if they avoid defeat at home to Paris Saint-Germain on December 13.

Behind BVB, it’s all to play for. PSG enter matchday six second with seven points, but they must win in Germany to be certain of a top-two finish. A victory will also see them top the group.

Newcastle United and Milan face off at St James’ Park, currently locked level on five points. The Magpies must win and hope PSG fail to do so to advance, while the Rossoneri must win and hope PSG lose.

If PSG advance to the last 16, the winner of Newcastle’s meeting with Milan – or the Magpies if it finishes level – will claim the Europa League place. Understood?

Group G (Qualified: Manchester City, RB Leipzig)

This is the only group where everything is decided. Reigning champions Manchester City have guaranteed top spot, with RB Leipzig going through as runners-up. Young Boys will play Europa League football after Christmas, and Red Star Belgrade are out entirely.

Group H (Qualified: Barcelona)

Leaders Barcelona have qualified for the last 16 and will win the group unless a remarkable sequence of events transpires on December 13. Barca would have to lose to pointless Antwerp, with Shakhtar Donetsk beating Porto and making up a seven-goal swing over the Blaugrana, to deny them top spot.

Porto and Shakhtar meet in Portugal in a winner-take-all clash as they battle for second place. Porto hold the head-to-head advantage, so a draw will be enough to send them through.

Harry Carr
Harry Carr
Harry is a freelance sports journalist with experience of working for the Racing Post, Stats Perform, Opta Analyst and more, covering major events across all sports but holding a particular love for the beautiful game.
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